Efficient Micro-Behaviors in Pari-mutuel Betting System and FL Bias

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a model which simulates odds distributions of pari-mutuel betting system under two hypotheses on the behavior of bettors: 1. The amount of bets increases very rapidly as the deadline for betting comes near. 2. Each bettor bets on a horse which gives the largest expectation value of the benefit. The results can be interpreted as such efficient behaviors do not serve to extinguish the FL bias but even produce stronger FL bias.