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ARE BEHAVIORAL BIASES CONSISTENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC?: THE OVER/UNDER MARKET FOR EUROPEAN SOCCER

Andy Weinbach, Rodney J. Paul

Abstract


Tests of the totals (Over/Under) market are performed for 22 European Soccer Leagues to determine if the behavioral biases found in North American sports betting markets are present in European Football (Soccer) betting markets.  Even though European fans passionately follow a low-scoring sport, bettors/fans in this market still appear to prefer the over to the under.  Simple betting strategies based on betting the over lose more than twice as much money as a simple strategy of betting the under and returns are found to be statistically different from a fair bet.  In addition, when the over is the longshot, a favorite-longshot bias is found such that losses on the over are extremely high.  When the under is the longshot, however, losses are nearly equal between overs and unders.  This presents the possibility multiple behavioral biases may exist in the same financial market, with the presence of one possibly masking the other.


Keywords


Efficient Markets, Sports Betting, Scoring, Totals

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v3i2.547

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