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A TOBIT REGRESSION MODEL OF FOOTBALL PERFORMANCE VARIABLES FOR A PROFITABLE FIXED ODDS BETTING STRATEGY

Paul White, Pat Sessford Pat Sessford

Abstract


An analysis of in-match football team performances in European top flight matches has been undertaken to develop profitable betting strategies in the fixed odds market. Three profitable betting strategies for betting on the home win are derived using a novel application of the Tobit regression model. Net profits of in excess of 15% are obtained in unseen out-of-sample testing. The generation of these profits may indicate that general team performance information may not be correctly factored into the fixed odds offered by bookmakers.


Keywords


Fixed odds betting rules; home win; bookmakers’ probabilities

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v4i3.558

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