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A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITIES OF SOCCER GAME RESULTS

Nissim Ben-David

Abstract


In this paper, using Israeli soccer tournament results from 2009/2010 and an ordered dependent estimation model I calculated for each team, in each game played during the season, the a priori probability of a win, loss or a tie as a function of lag performance.  Given these probabilities, the average probability that each team would end a game with a win, loss or a tie can be calculated. 


Keywords


Soccer Game; gambling

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v4i3.559

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