Main Article Content
Abramowitz A. I. (1988). An Improved Model for Predicting the Outcomes of Presidential Elections. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21 4, 843-847
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012a). How the Government Measures Unemployment retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2012b). Where can I find the unemployment rate for previous years?retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/cps/prev_yrs.htm/
Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2012). Table 3.12. Government Social Benefits. retrieved from: http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp
Cuzán, A. G., Heggen R.J., & Bundrick,C.M. (2000). Fiscal policy, economic conditions, and terms in office: simulating presidential election outcomes. In Proceedings of the World Congress of the Systems Sciences and ISSS International Society for the Systems Sciences, 44th Annual Meeting, July 16–20, Toronto, Canada.
Cuzán, A. G. (2016). Fiscal model forecast for the 2016 U.S. presidential election. retrieved from: http://pollyvote.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/FISCAL-MODEL-FORECAST-FOR-2016-AMERICAN-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION.pdf
Hibbs D. A. (2000). Bread and Peace voting in U.S. presidential elections. Public Choice, 104, 149–180.
Hibbs D. A. (2012). Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace’ Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election.retrieved from: http://www.douglashibbs.com/HibbsArticles/HIBBS_OBAMA-REELECT-31July2012r1.pdf
Fair, R. C. (1978). The effect of economic events on votes for president. Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159-173.
Fair, R. C. (2002). Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Fair, R.C. (2006). The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update. retrieved from: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2006CHTM.HTM
Fair, R.C. (2008). 2008 Post Mortem. retrieved from: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm
Fair, R. C. (2012). Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update. retrieved from: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm
Fair, R.C. (2014). Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update retrieved from: https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.html
Gallup Presidential Poll. (2016). Presidential Job Approval Center. retrieved from: http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx
International Monetary Fund. (2010). Historical Public Debt Database. retrieved from: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/data/wp10245.zip
InflationData.com. (2016). Historical Crude Oil Prices (Table). retrieved from: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp
Jérôme B. & Jérôme V. (2011). Forecasting the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election: What Can We Learn from a State Level Political Economy Model. In Proceedings of the APSA Annual meeting Seattle, September 1-4 2011.
Katz J.(2016) Who will be President? Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Lichtman, A. J., and Keilis-Borok, V. I. (1981). “Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of Integral Social, Economic and Political Traits,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, Vol. 78, No. 11, pp. 7230-7234
Lichtman, A. J. (2005). The Keys to the White House. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
Lichtman, A. J. (2008). The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008. International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 301–309.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. & Rice, T. W. (1982).Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 46 4, 534-537.
Office of the Clerk. (2010). Election Statistics. retrieved from: http://artandhistory.house.gov/house_history/electionInfo/index.aspx
Sigelman, L. (1979). Presidential popularity and presidential elections. Public Opinion Quarterly, 43, 532-34.
Silver. N. (2011). On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election. retrieved from: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-themaddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/
Sinha P. and Bansal. A. K. (2008). Hierarchical Bayes Prediction for the 2008 US Presidential Election. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2, 47-60.
Sinha P., Sharma A. & Singh H. (2012). Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential election using multiple regression model, The Journal of Prediction Markets, 6 2, 78-98.
Tufte, E. R. (1975). Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections. American Political Science Review, 69, 812-26.
The White House. (2012). Table 1.2—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, And Surpluses Or Deficits (–) As Percentages Of GDP: 1930–2017. retrieved from: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/hist.pdf
United States National Mining Association. (2011). Historical Gold Prices- 1833 to Present. Retrieved from: http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf
Weingert & Sebastian(2015). Predicting primary election results through network analysis of donor relationships retrieved from: https://web.stanford.edu/class/cs224w/projects_2015/Predicting_primary_election_results_through_network_analysis_of_donor_relationships.pdf