# A conceptual alternative forecasting model for alternative investments

## DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v12i2.1541## Keywords:

neural networks, fuzzy systems, financial forecasting## Abstract

In this article we present a conceptual model for forecasting purposes that can be used from fund managers or investors. Our conceptual model is a hybrid model and borrows concepts from machine learning; more specifically, from artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic (FL). We propose the use of the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) which is a recurrent dynamic network, with feedback connections enclosing several layers of the network. This ANN is combined with a FL component to deal with uncertainties when considering various market conditions. The proposed conceptual forecasting model has an open architecture design so as to be extended and optimized based on investorsâ€™ needs.## References

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