INFORMATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN NFL POINT SPREAD AND MONEYLINE MARKETS

Abstract

In this paper we test the efficiency of NFL betting markets by examining the ability of NFL point spread and moneyline markets to incorporate information.  While bookmakers may properly evaluate available information when setting point spreads and moneylines, we show that the nature of point spread markets makes full information incorporation difficult. We test if information from the finer moneyline market can be used to predict whether favorites will cover the spread in the point spread market.  We find that for games with the same point spread, betting on (against) the most (least) favored teams to win (lose), according to the moneyline, results in chances to profit, suggesting an inefficiency in the point spread market.