EXPLOITING THE MAIN BIASES IN AMERICAN SOCCER BETTING MARKETS.

Abstract

In this paper the author will discuss the main inefficiencies in the 4 American major leagues of football (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and USA), proposing a betting scheme, which outperforms the market with consistency over the past 9 Seasons (from 2012/2013 up to 2020/2021). Analysing the available data it was discovered how “Home advantage bias” and “Championship favourite advantage bias” play a big role in these championships and, by betting only on events, in which they were predicted favourable betting odds, it was possible to obtain an average return of +6.87% over 567 matches, using average bookmakers coefficients available on the market. The results are particularly significant, since, at least to our knowledge, there were no similar strategies available, which could guarantee such a big positive outcome for the leagues presented.