A TOBIT REGRESSION MODEL OF FOOTBALL PERFORMANCE VARIABLES FOR A PROFITABLE FIXED ODDS BETTING STRATEGY

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Published: Jan 2, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v4i3.558
Keywords:
Fixed odds betting rules home win bookmakers’ probabilities

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Paul White
Bristol Institute of Technology, University of the West of England
Pat Sessford Pat Sessford
Bristol Institute of Technology, University of the West of England

Abstract

An analysis of in-match football team performances in European top flight matches has been undertaken to develop profitable betting strategies in the fixed odds market. Three profitable betting strategies for betting on the home win are derived using a novel application of the Tobit regression model. Net profits of in excess of 15% are obtained in unseen out-of-sample testing. The generation of these profits may indicate that general team performance information may not be correctly factored into the fixed odds offered by bookmakers.

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 4 No. 3 (2010)
Section
Articles

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