The Probability of Winning Warren Buffett’s Billion Dollars

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Published: Oct 6, 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v9i2.996
Keywords:
Probability Theory Gambling

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Michael John Sullivan
University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Abstract

Stated in the contest rules the probability of winning the NCAA College Basketball Tournament “Quicken Loans Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge” is one in 9.2 quintillion (9.2 x 1018).  This is calculated based on each team having an even chance of 50% to win any given Tournament game.  In this paper, I use two alternative methodologies to calculate the probability of teams to win individual games and use these probabilities to calculate the overall probability of achieving a perfect 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket.  Based on Las Vegas closing point spreads, I find the probability of having a perfect 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket is approximately one in 1.31 quadrillion (1.31 x 1015).  Alternatively, using Conlen and Silver (2014) estimated probabilities, I find the probability is approximately one in 1.57 quadrillion (1.57 x 1015).  These alternative methodologies produce surprisingly similar probabilities and are lower (better) by a factor of approximately 6,000 to 8,000 times than the probability stated in contest rules.

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 9 No. 2 (2015)
Section
Articles
Author Biography

Michael John Sullivan, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Michael J. SullivanFull ProfessorDepartment of FinanceUniversity of Nevada, Las Vegas 

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