Impacts of the 2018-19 NBA Rule Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market

Abstract

The National Basketball Association introduced rule changes prior to the 2018-19 season. We examine the impact of these changes on actual and expected scoring during the season. The rule changes led to greater average scoring, which was not fully encompassed at the start of the season in the financial (betting) market resulting in significant returns to betting the over. The early season volatility in the market subsided as the season progressed resulting in a generally efficient market.