Forecasting Road Accident Deaths in India Using SARIMA

Abstract

Road accidents are one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The present study analysed the pattern of road accident deaths in India from the year 2014 till the year 2022. The data was taken from the government website, and we have split it into training and testing datasets. The training dataset was from the year 2014 to 2020, and the forecasting was done for the years 2021 and 2022. We have used the SARIMA model to forecast the number of road accidents in India for the years 2021 and 2022. The accuracy of the SARIMA model in forecasting the number of road accidents in India is also established in the present study. The study has insights for policymakers and administrators. Some of the policies that can be enforced to decrease the number of road accidents in India are better road infrastructure for vehicles across India, enforcement of safety regulations, easy access to trauma care centres, strictly following the speed limits on the road and so on.