DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS

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Published: Dec 19, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v5i3.493

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Leighton Vaughan Williams
University of Nottingham
Blake Saville
The George Washington University
Herman Stekler
The George Washington University

Abstract

In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, in forecasting the outcome of the 2010 US Senate elections. Prediction markets are speculative or betting markets created or employed for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions. To do this, we used data from the 2010 US Senate election campaigns, comparing the performance of an established prediction market with opinion polls. Overall we found no significant difference in the forecasting ability of the polls and prediction markets in the Senate races under examination.

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 5 No. 3 (2011): Elections and Prediction Markets
Section
Articles

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