ANIMAL MODELING OF EARTHQUAKES AND PREDICTION MARKETS

Article Sidebar

Requires Subscription or Fee PDF (GBP 25)
Published: Dec 19, 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i2.502

Main Article Content

Adi Schnytzer
Departments of Economics, Bar Ilan University
Yisrael Schnytzer
The Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences, Bar Ilan University

Abstract

Prediction markets have been shown to generate fairly accurate odds of various events occurring in the future. The forthcoming possibility of natural disasters provides, on occasion, an opportunity for a bet, yet no wide scale and accepted prediction market has arisen despite its obvious importance, probably due in part to its 'politically incorrect' nature, but more importantly to the fact that we have yet to develop accurate forecasting models. Animals, however, have been forced through natural selection to develop elaborate anticipatory mechanisms to predict possible upcoming calamites. Recent studies suggest that animals can, days and sometimes weeks in advance, predict the occurrence of earthquakes. A wealth of recent observations and laboratory studies corroborate this. Natural disasters have lead to the development of 'risk taking' behaviors when the 'odds' of an upcoming disaster outweigh the benefits of maintaining territory, mating, and other basic behaviors. For various historical reasons discussed in this review, this field has had trouble coming of age, with little funding and support from the scientific community. Due to the great odds at stake and the tremendous economic impact of earthquakes we wish to raise the awareness of this vital topic to the wider scientific community. We present a review of such animal predictive behavior and propose that an early “reading” of such models might lead to the development of a predictions market by humans."For five days before Helike disappeared all the mice and martens and snakes and centipedes and beetles and every other creature of that kind in the town left in a body by the road that leads to Keryneia. And the people of Helike seeing this happening were filled with amazement, but were unable to guess the reason. But after the aforesaid creatures had departed, an earthquake occurred in the night; the town collapsed; an immense wave poured over it, and Helike disappeared..."Aelian (373 BC)

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2012)
Section
Articles

References

Adams, M.H. (1990). Some Observations of Electromagnetic Signals Prior to California Earthquakes. Journal of Scientific Exploration. 4, 137-152.

Arnason, B.T., Hart, L.Y. and O'Connell-Rodmwell, C.E. (2002). The properties of geophysical fields and their effects on Elephants and other animals. Journal of Comparative Psychology. 116, 123-132.

Bluestone, J.R. (2010). Why the earth shakes: Pre-modern understandings and modern earthquake science. Phd thesis, Faculty of the graduate school, University of Minnesota.

Bouchon, M., Karabulut, H., Aktar, M., Özalaybey, S., Schmittbuhl, J. And Bouin, M.P. (2011). Extended Nucleation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit Earthquake. Science. 331, 877-880.

Burda, H., Begall, S., Cerevny, J., Neef, J. and Nemek, P. (2009). Extremly Low- Frequency Electromagnetic Fields Disrupt Magnetic Alignment of Ruminats. PNAS. 106, 5708-5713.

Buskirk, R.E., Frohlich, C.L. and Latham, G.V. (1981).Unusual animal behavior before earthquakes: a review of possible sensory mechanisms. Rev. Geophys. 19, 247–270.

Chen, A.T., Ouchi, T., Lin, A., Chen, J. and Maruyama, T. (2000). Phenomena Associated With The 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, Possible Precursors and After Effects. TAO. 11, 689-700.

Chou, Y.J., Chen, Y.I., Liu, J.Y. and Pulinets, S.A., (2001). Ionospheric foF2 Variations Prior To Strong Earthquakes In Taiwan Area. Adv. Space. Res. 27, 1305-1310.

Cicerone, R.D., Ebel, J.E., and Britton, J. (2009). A systematic compilation of earthquake precursors. Tectonophysics. 476, 371-396.

Denis, T.E., Rayner, M.J. and Walker, M.M. (2007). Evidence That Pigeons Orient to Geomagnetic Intensity During Homing. Proc. R. Soc. B. 274, 1153-1158.

Dologlou, E. (2010). Recent aspects on possible interrelation between precursory electric signals and anomalous bioeffects. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 1951-1955.

Fidani, C. (2010). The earthquake lights (EQL) of the 6 April 2009 Aquila earthquake, in Central Italy. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 967-978.

Freund, F.T. (2003). Rocks That Crackle and Sparkle and Glow: Strange Pre-Earthquake Phenomena. Journal of Scientific Exploration. 17, 37-71.

Freund, F. Toward a Unified Solid State Theory for Pre-Earthquake Signals (2010). Acta Geophysica. 58, 719-766.

Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia (1997a). Cannot earthquakes be predicted—responses, Science 278, 488–490.

Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia (1997b). Geoscience—earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science 275, 1616–1617.

Grant RA, Halliday T. (2010) Predicting the unpredictable: evidenceof pre-seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad. J Zool 281, 263-271.

Hayakawa, M, Horie, T., Muto, F., Kasahara, Y., Ohta, K., Liu, J.Y. and Hobara, Y., (2010). Subionospheric VLF/LF Probing of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes: A Possibility of Earthquake Prediction. Journal of Control, Measurment and System Integration. 3, 10-14.

Hayakawa, M., Raulin, J.P., Kasahara, Y., Bertoni, F.C.P., Hobara, Y. and Guevara-Day, W., (2011). Ionospheric perturbations in possible association with the 2010 Haiti earthquake, as based on medium-distance subionospheric VLF propagation data. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 513-518.

Heupel M.R., Simpfendorfer C.A. and Hueter R.E. (2003) Running before the storm: blacktip sharks respond to falling barometric pressure associated with Tropical Storm Gabrielle. J Fish Biol 63, 1357–1363.

Ikeya, M. and Matzumoto, H. (1997). Reproduced Earthquake Precursor Legends Using a Van de Graaff Electrostatic Generator: Candle Flame and Dropped Nails. Naturwissenschaften. 84, 539-541.

Ikeya, M., Matumoto, H. and Huang, Q.H. (1998). Alignment Silkworms As Seismic Animal Anomalous Behavior (SAAB) and Electro-Magnetic Model of a Fault: A Theory and Laboratory Experiment. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 11, 365-374.

Ikeya, M. 1999. Earthquake precursors due to seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS). Recent Res Dev Appl Phys 2, 109–127.

Ikeya, M, Yamanaka C, Matsuda T, Sasaoka H, Ochiai H, Huang Q,Ohtani N, Ohta M, Ohno Y, Nakagawa T. 2000. Electromagnetic pulses generated by compression rocks and animal behavior. Episodes 23, 262–265.

Ikeya, M. (2004). Earthquakes and Animals: From Folk Legends to Science. World Scientific Publishing, Hackensack, NJ.

Kerr, R.A. (1980). Quake prediction by animals gaining respect. Science. 208, 695-696.

Kirschvink, J.L. (2000). Earthquake prediction by animals: evolution and sensory perception. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90, 312–323.

Kirschvink, J.L., Winklhofer, M. and Walker. M.M. (2011). Biophysics of Magnetic Orientation: Strengthening the Interface Between Theory and Experimental Design. J. R. Soc. Interface. 7, S179-S191.

Kobayashi, A., and L.L. Kirschvink (1995). Magnetoreception and EME effects: sensory perception of the geomagnetic field in animals and humans, in Electromagnetic Fields: Biological Interactions and Mechanisms, M. Blank (Editor), American Chemical Society Books, Washington, D.C., 367–394.

Li, Y., Liu, Y., Jiang, A., Guan, J., Yi, G., Cheng, S., Yang, B., Fu, T. & Wang, Z. (2009). Behavioral change related to Wenchuan devastating earthquake in mice. Bioelectromagnetics 30, 613–620.

Liu. Y.L., Lillywhite, H.B., and Tu, M.C. (2010). Sea snakes anticipate tropical cyclone. Marine biology. 157, 2369-2373.

Luen, B., and Stark, P.B. (2008). Testing earthquake predictions. Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman Vol. 2, 302-315.

Moore, A. and Riley, W.D. (2009). Magnetic particles associated with the lateral line of the European eel Anguilla anguilla. Journal of Fish Biology. 74, 1629-1634.

Muto, F., Yoshida, M., Horie, T., Hayakawa, M., Parrot., M. and Molchanov, O.A. (2008). Detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with Japanese earthquakes on the basis of reception of LF transmitter signals on the satellite DEMETER. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 8, 135-141.

Nishimura, T., Okano, H., Tada, H., Nishimura, E., Sugimoto, K., Mohri, K. and Fukushima, M. (2010). Lizards respond to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic field. Journal of Experimental Biology. 213, 1985-1990.

Pease, J. W., and Orourke T.D. (1997). Seismic response of liquefaction sites, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 123, 37–45.

Rikitake, T. (1981). Anomalous animal behavior preceding the 1978 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 that occurred near Izu-Oshima, Japan. In Current research in earthquake prediction I: 67–80. Rikitake, T. (Ed.). Reidel: Dordrecht.

Ryabinin, G.V., Polyakov, Yu.S., Gavrilov, V.A., and Timashev, S.F. (2011). Identification of earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemicaland geoacoustic data for the Kamchatka peninsula by flicker-noise spectroscopy. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (in press).

Schaal, R.B. (1988). An Evaluation of the Animal-Behavior Theory for Earthquake Prediction. California Geology. 41, 41-45.

Smits, G. (2006). Shaking Up Japan: Edo Society and the 1855 Catfish Picture Prints. Journal of Social History. 39, 1045-1078.

Snarr, K.A.(2005). Seismic activity response as observed in mantled howlers (Alouatta palliata), Cuero y Salado Wildlife Refuge, Honduras. Primates. 46, 281-285.

Soter, S. (1999). Macroscopic seismic anomalies and submarine pockmarks in the Corinth–Patras rift, Greece. Tectonophysics. 308, 275-290.

Stothers, R. (2004). Earthquake prediction in antiquity. Acient Hist. Bull. 18, 101–108.

Southwood, A. and Avens, L. (2010). Physiological, behavioral, and ecological aspects of migration in reptiles. J Comp Physiol B. 180, 1-23.

Tributsch, H. (1982). When the Snakes Awake: Animals and Earthquake Prediction, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 248 pp.

Uyeda, S., Nagao, T., and Kamogawa, M. (2009). Short-term earthquakeprediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics, Tectonophysics, 470, 205–213.

Walker, M.M., Diebel, C.E. and Kirschvink, J.L. (2003). Detection and Use of Earth's Magnetic Field by Aquatic Vertebrates. in Sensory Processing in Aquatic Environments., S.P. Collin and N.J. Marshall (Editor), Springer-Verlag, New York, 53-74.

Wang, K., Chen, Q.F., Sun, S. and Wang, A. (1996). Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 96, 757-795.

Whitehead, N.E., Ulusoy, U., Asahara, H. and Ikeya, M. (2004). Are any public-reported earthquake precursors valid? Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 4, 463-468.

Wiltschko, R. and Wiltschko, M. Magnetoreception (2006). BioEssays. 28, 157-168.

Wyss, M. (1997). 2nd round of evaluations of proposed earthquake precursors, Pure Appl. Geophys. 149, 3–16.

Wyss, M., and D. C. Booth (1997). The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors, Geophys. J. Int. 131, 423–424.

Wyss. M. (2001). Why is earthquake prediction not progressing faster? Tectonophysics. 338, 217-223.

Yosef, R. (1997). Reactions of Grey Herons (Ardea cinerea) to seismic tremors. J. Ornithol. 138, 543–546.

Yokoi, S., Ikeya, M., Yagi, T. & Nagai, K. (2003). Mouse circadian rhythm before the Kobe earthquake in 1995. Bioelectromagnetics 24, 289–291.