A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

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Published: Jun 17, 2014
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i1.838
Keywords:
population distribution fertility survival rates

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Nissim Ben-David
Max Stern Academic College of Emek Yezreel
Evyatar Ben David
Tel Aviv University
Zvi Winer

Abstract

We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group. Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of change is reduced in countries with low or medium survival rate of infants. Conversely, it increased for those with a high survival rate of infants. If the survival rate of infants converges to 1, the fertility rate of change converges to zero, moving the country to steady size of population at age 1.  

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 8 No. 1 (2014)
Section
Articles

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